Which should mean a .1% chance of all three combined succeeding: 10% chance for abiogenesis, 10% of planets where this occurs will see life survive long enough to meet condition 2, and then 10% of those will develop a technologically advanced civilization. Does .1% still add up to more than 10 million planets with advanced civilizations in our galaxy alone? I’m not sure it does. Or maybe it does if we assume the odds are exactly the same even on planets in tidally locked orbits with their host stars — which seems to be the case with many of the “Earth like” planets we are finding. With half the planet in perpetual darkness, the odds of all three of these things happening will, I imagine, drop by more than 50%.

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US citizen residing in British Columbia, Canada. Degrees include anthropology and environmental studies. Activism, politics, science, nature.

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